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Men's Basketball

Opponent preview: Everything you need to know about No. 2 Houston

Courtesy of Jamie Schwaberow | NCAA Photos

Syracuse and Houston have only met once in 1982 in the Carrier Dome.

By Anthony Dabbundo

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Syracuse advanced to the Sweet 16 with an upset win over No. 3 West Virginia last Saturday. Now, the Orange have a chance to book their spot in the Elite Eight with a matchup against No. 2 seed Houson. 

Here’s everything you need to know about the Cougars ahead of Saturday night’s game in Hinkle Fieldhouse:

All-time series

Syracuse leads 1-0

Last time they played

Syracuse and Houston’s only meeting was in 1982, when the Orange beat the Cougars in an upset 92-87 win in the Carrier Dome. Houston’s “Phi Slama Jama” team featured Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler.  Tony Bruin and Erich Santifer scored 26 and 22 points, respectively. Houston went on to lose in the national championship game that year to North Carolina State and Jim Valvano’s “Survive and Advance” team.



Expert projections

KenPom gives Houston a 76% chance to win by a projected score of 75-67, and Bart Torvik gives UH a 78% chance to win by a predicted score of 75-67.  Haslametrics.com projects the Cougars to have a smaller edge, with a projected 74.86-68.34 score. Jeff Sagarin’s projections show Houston at 71% to win.

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The Houston report

The biggest question for the Cougars entering the Sweet 16 is the health of point guard DeJon Jarreau. He injured his hip in the first minute of Houston’s first-round win against Cleveland State and didn’t return to that game. He looked sharp in the first half against Rutgers but seemed to reinjure his hip on a fall. Out of desperation, Jarreau returned to the game to help save the Cougars’ season and lead the comeback, but he wasn’t 100% healthy.

Head coach Kelvin Sampson called Jarreau the team’s most important player — he’s the leader of their offense and excellent at getting into the lane and distributing for others. With six days between games against Rutgers and Syracuse, Jarreau may have time to get healthy before facing the Orange.

More often than not, Jarreau is finding Quentin Grimes, a junior transfer from Kansas who is the Cougars’ leading scorer. He can score at the rim and has been red-hot from beyond the arc. The Cougars are pretty big in the backcourt but smaller in the frontcourt. Despite their lack of size, though, the Cougars rebound as well as any team in the nation.

Forwards Justin Gorham and Brison Gresham stand at 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-8, respectively, but they block a lot of shots, rebound as well as any pair in the country and are both low-usage players. Gorham is more of a stretch four offensively and is the most likely player to take up the high-post role against the Orange’s 2-3 zone. He’s 11th in the country in offensive rebounding rate, while Gresham is 17th in block rate defensively. Gresham’s main role in the offense is to finish dunks and get rebounds. He protects the middle defensively, just as Houston likes to protect the paint at all costs. 

Guard Marcus Sasser is a streaky shooter for the Cougars who has been in a slump of late. The 6-foot-1 guard is capable of taking over a game and busting a zone when he’s rolling, but he’s 9-of-31 from 3 in the Cougars’ last four games. He’s shot 32.5% from deep for the year but is a plus defender and likely will matchup with Joe Girard III. 

Houston is middle of the pack in bench usage but has blown out several bad teams in the American Athletic Conference, which has led to some garbage time minutes for their bench players. The Cougars’ sixth man is freshman wing Tramon Mark, who can’t really shoot but is good at slashing to the rim and drawing fouls.

Syracuse and Houston are both playing their best basketball to end the season, with the Orange ranking 16th in positive momentum and the Cougars ranking 41st.

Houston offense vs Syracuse defense

The biggest mismatch in this game is the Houston offense’s volume of shots against the Orange’s poor defensive rebounding. No team in the NCAA averages more shots per 100 possessions than the Cougars, and the Orange are 350th in the same metric. Houston isn’t great at shooting overall, as they are 117th in effective field goal percentage. But only North Carolina has a higher offensive rebounding percentage, and the Orange have struggled to keep elite offensive rebounding teams off the glass for years. 

The Cougars prefer to shoot from the outside rather than taking it into the middle. Houston’s offense has the 56th-highest 3-point attempt rate, and it doesn’t have much interior scoring overall that isn’t putbacks and second-chance opportunities. 

UH ranks 321st in proximity from the basket on their average shot, while the Orange’s defense allows the eighth-farthest shot distance. Expect the Cougars to be shooting jumpers and for Syracuse’s zone to struggle to rebound off of the Cougars’ misses. 

Houston has seen plenty of zone defenses this season, per Synergy. The Cougars are in the top 50 of zones faced, seeing it on 18.7% of their possessions. The Cougars have shredded the zones that they’ve gone against, namely Tulsa and Tulane. Tulsa plays a matchup 2-3 often, while Tulane runs a 1-2-2 that morphs into a 2-3 in the halfcourt. Synergy describes the Houston offense as “very good” vs. zone defenses.

What else you should know before Syracuse takes on Houston:

Syracuse offense vs Houston defense

If the Cougars’ defense has a weakness, it’s their foul rate. Their aggressive defense is always looking for steals and blocks, which leaves them vulnerable to offensive rebounds and fouls. They rank 332nd in free-throw rate, among the worst in the country. UH is an average defensive rebounding team, too — another area where the Orange could exploit the Cougars.

Houston allows the lowest effective field goal percentage in the country, but its offensive strength of schedule isn’t particularly impressive, as it has faced 148th-toughest schedule of offensive opponents. 

The Cougars’ defense is eighth in block rate, 13th in steal rate and fifth in 2-point defense. The best way to get at Houston is to draw fouls and get to the bonus as early as possible. They’ll keep fouling and the Orange’s excellent free-throw shooting could help them get some free points. 

While Syraucse is 64th in mid-range field goal rate and likes to take those mid-range jumpers, the Cougars’ defense allows the second-fewest mid-range shots in the country. Their defense takes away the paint, much like SDSU and West Virginia, but also does a much better job of guarding the perimeter than either of those two teams. 

The Orange would be best served to take all of their shots from the rim or the 3-point range, avoiding the strength of the Cougars’ defense in the mid-range. Syracuse’s offense has been elite since March began and will need one of its best performances to knock off the favored Cougars on Saturday.

Quentin Grimes with the ball

Quentin Grimes transferred to Houston after playing his freshman year at Kansas. Courtesy of Ben Solomon | NCAA Photos

Player to watch: Quentin Grimes, Guard, No. 24 

Grimes is the player the Orange need to closely watch in the 2-3 zone. He had a solid freshman year at Kansas under Bill Self in 2019 before transferring to Houston. After a slow start to the season, Grimes has been one of the best players in the country down the stretch. He is ninth on the KenPom national player of the year list and shoots 41.1% from 3-point range. He’s scored at least 15 points in all but one of the Cougars last 10 games. Grimes is 53-of-93 from 3 in that 10-game sample and is also effective at getting to the line and the rim. He’s assisting less and scoring more than he did last year and averages 18 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.

Stat to know: 5th

Syracuse has been one of the best teams in the country in March. The Orange rank fifth in overall efficiency since the month began, but the Cougars are even better. Houston’s offense has been firing and the Cougars rank fourth nationally in offense and seventh in overall efficiency since the month began. Even though UH needed a late comeback against Rutgers, they’re playing their best basketball down the stretch of the season, especially on offense.





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