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Increasing coronavirus case numbers in New York state and Onondaga County may undermine Syracuse University’s ability to reopen safely in January, university and county officials told The Daily Orange.

University officials, including Vice Chancellor Mike Haynie, the head of SU’s COVID-19 response, have said the low infection rate in Onondaga County at the start of the fall semester was a key factor in bringing students back to campus safely. But that infection rate has crept up in recent weeks as both the state and the country brace for another peak of infections.

“We have to look at the facts on the ground,” said Indu Gupta, commissioner of the Onondaga County Health Department, in an interview with The D.O. “The school will make that decision, with our consultation at that point, if we have suddenly a very high number of cases.”

If infections in New York state continue to rise into January, SU may need to reconsider its plans to continue in-person instruction, Gupta said. The department will communicate this to university officials should the need arise.

With SU’s spring semester set to begin Jan. 25, Gupta stressed that it’s far too early to speculate on the university’s ability to reopen.

Coronavirus cases have increased across the United States in October, particularly in the South and Midwest. While New York state currently has the second-lowest positivity rate in the country, it has recently seen an uptick in cases.

“We are seeing the second wave, or surges, throughout the country, including in New York state, which we started to see in our county also,” Gupta said. “Our numbers keep on going up, which is a big concern.

Onondaga County reported a record-setting 70 new cases on Wednesday, the largest single-day jump since reporting began. It was also monitoring 379 active cases — a drastic decrease from the county’s highest, 941, which it reached in June, but about double the number the county was monitoring on Aug. 25, the day after SU resumed in-person classes.

“You just don’t turn this around in a couple of days,” County Executive Ryan McMahon said during a press conference Monday. “It takes weeks for us to see the modifications in people’s behavior, essentially to see the whole trajectory change.”

The county’s positivity rate had also risen to 1.6% as of Tuesday after spending nearly all of August and September at or below 1%, according to state data. The county has identified 5,201 cases since the pandemic began, and 212 people in the county have died from the virus, including one man who died over the weekend. 

Coronavirus hotspots have also appeared around the state, including in New York City and some of its suburbs. One such hotspot, located in Broome County, contributed to SU’s largest spike in cases since in-person classes resumed.

SU officials have said a student who traveled to Binghamton, which is located in Broome County, spread COVID-19 at a party at an apartment complex on Walnut Avenue.

This triggered a cluster of infections among SU students that led the university to temporarily suspend in-person student activities and further limit the number of students allowed at nonessential gatherings. It also brought the university closer than ever to transitioning classes online since the start of the fall semester.

Despite the events that led to the cluster, the majority of SU students have followed public health guidelines, Gupta said. SU’s surveillance measures, including student testing and wastewater testing, have been largely effective, she said.

The health department has worked hand-in-hand with the university in tracing and containing cases of the virus, Gupta said.

“We have a regular conversation with SU leadership,” she said. “They are very dedicated to protect the health of their students, their faculty, and also make sure they are protecting the health of the community.”

Students at SU who have contracted the virus this semester have voiced complaints about the university’s isolation procedures, including a perceived delay in communication between the university and county or state authorities.

Onondaga County will strictly follow guidelines from the New York State Department of Health in deciding to impose shutdown measures, including restrictions on the university’s ability to hold in-person classes, Gupta said. The county may begin advising SU to reconsider its spring plans if the county becomes a state-designated red zone.

The state health department has different standards for determining red zones. Onondaga County would become a red zone if it surpassed a positivity rate of 5% based on a 7-day rolling average. For the city of Syracuse to qualify as a red zone, however, it would only have to exceed a 4% positivity rate.

The goal of both the state’s and the county’s public health guidelines is to avoid a shut down, Gupta said. That includes keeping universities open.

“If somebody is in the red zone, yes, everything gets shut down,” Gupta said. “We are working hard to make sure our infection rate continues to go down so students can continue to come back. Because you are an important part of this community.”

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Brooks Gump, a public health professor at SU, agreed with Gupta that it’s too early to predict whether SU will be able to bring students back to campus safely in January. But action by government leaders to mitigate the virus’s spread could have a substantial impact on the positivity rate and will be a key factor in SU’s decision-making process, he said.

“If we really adopted the ‘herd immunity’ –– which is ludicrous –– but if we really adopted that approach, we’d have a really, really long spike and a really, really gradual decline into next spring and summer,” Gump said.

If SU does succeed in bringing students back to campus in the spring, it will face challenges similar to those it encountered in the fall semester: administering testing and providing quarantine and isolation procedures to the entire student body.

Haynie has said the university will also have the added difficulty of promoting social distancing without access to outdoor spaces. As a result, the university may turn to the newly renovated Carrier Dome –– which has already served as the university’s flagship testing center –– for additional space.

The expansion of New York state’s travel advisory in the wake of the nationwide increase in cases may also pose complications for students, said David Larsen, an associate professor of public health at Falk College.

The advisory, which impacted over 3,000 SU students at the beginning of the fall semester, requires individuals traveling to New York state from coronavirus hotspots to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. SU students had to complete this quarantine at their own expense, with freshmen allowed to quarantine on campus but upperclassmen required to secure their own accommodations.

If the positivity rate stays high nationwide, a greater number of students may find themselves subject to the costly quarantine requirement, Larsen said.

Larsen has also noted that colder weather may trigger a second wave of coronavirus cases in the United States. But Gupta believes there’s another factor at play: complacency.

As people get tired of social distancing and other coronavirus-related health guidelines, they’ve let their guards down, she said.

“It’s still a part of our community, like it or not,” Gupta said. “The only way we can get rid of this unwanted guest is to do what is in our hands.”

Students shouldn’t expect a vaccine to arrive over winter break, either, Gupta said. Even if scientists develop a vaccine by the end of year, it won’t reach the general public until spring or summer 2021.

Until then, students and county residents alike need to strengthen their commitment to following public health guidelines, Gupta said.

“There is always a morning after the night,” Gupta said. “So I don’t think it’s going to last forever, it is going to end. But right now the end is not in sight.”

Asst. Copy Editor Mira Berenbaum contributed reporting to this story.

Published on October 28, 2020 at 11:52 pm

Contact Chris: cjhippen@syr.edu