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Syracuse is still searching for its first Atlantic Coast Conference win, and for the first time this season, it’s favored in a conference game. The Orange host SMU Thursday morning, and, according to HerHoopStats, they have a nearly eight-point edge over the Mustangs.

Thursday’s matchup follows a pair of road losses for SU. First, Syracuse fell to then-No. 13 Georgia Tech 85-68 on Jan. 2. The score was tied 16-16 following one quarter, but the Yellow Jackets outscored the Orange 28-15 in the second quarter. SU had no answer for GT’s Dani Carnegie, who scored 28 points on 6-of-8 3-point shooting.

Against Florida State, which boasts Division I’s most prolific scorer — Ta’Niya Latson — Syracuse couldn’t hold onto a halftime lead, leading to an 85-73 loss. After shooting a dreadful 1-for-17 from 3 in the first half, the Seminoles recalibrated to go 9-for-17 from deep in the second. SU’s top scorer, Georgia Woolley, also struggled, shooting a 2-for-16 clip and committing nine turnovers. Senior forward Kyra Wood, SU’s top rebounder, was also out due to concussion protocol, per the ACC Network broadcast.

Here’s everything to know about SMU (9-6, 1-2 ACC) before its matchup with Syracuse (6-8, 0-3 ACC) Thursday:

All-time Series

This is the teams’ first contest.

The Mustangs Report

Last season, in the American Athletic Conference, SMU finished 129th in HerHoopStats’ team rankings, below all ACC squads except Wake Forest and Pitt. Following the campaign, the Mustangs’ top scorer, Tiara Young (17.2 points per game), graduated. They also lost Amirah Abdur-Rahim, who posted a team-leading 6.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game, to Texas A&M.

However, SMU has held its own in ACC play this season. The Mustangs narrowly lost 93-85 to Florida State on Dec. 8, where Latson’s 39 points willed the Seminoles to victory. Next, SMU went on a four-game winning streak, bookended by a 67-63 win over Stanford in its second ACC contest on Jan. 2. In their next game, the Mustangs couldn’t complete the sweep of the Bay Area schools, losing to then-No. 20 Cal, 81-66.

The majority of SMU’s points come from 2s. It ranks outside the top 240 teams in both free throw rate and 3-point rate this season while slotting in the top 30 nationally in field goals and 2-pointers attempted. George Washington transfer Nya Robertson has been the Mustangs’ main scorer, averaging 20.3 points per game. Their next-highest scorer, Chantae Embry, averages 11.7 points per contest.

How Syracuse beats SMU

Though Syracuse fell for the third straight game in conference play at FSU, there were many positive signs. The Orange had a three-point halftime lead in Tallahassee against the 26th-best team, according to the AP Coaches Poll. They limited the nation’s best scorer, Latson, to zero points in the second quarter and forced her to cough the ball up nine times — six more than her season average.

With Woolley’s woes, SU saw other players step up to carry the offensive load. Fellow Australian Madeline Potts continues to be the Orange’s most reliable 3-point shooter. Potts scored 11 points, going 3-of-4 from beyond the arc. LSU transfer Angelica Velez, whose playing time has wavered, dished out 10 assists. Another transfer, Journey Thompson, finished with 13 points.

If those rotation pieces again step up against SMU, Syracuse should be on course to victory. However, with SMU’s rebounding prowess and with Wood’s status still unknown, SU will need strong performances from the likes of Saniaa Wilson, Izabel Varejão and Thompson, as SMU ranks 19th in offensive rebound rate overall. The trio can limit the Mustangs’ offensive possessions and allow the Orange to elongate their own.

Stat to know: 43.3

The Mustangs are a terrific rebounding team, bringing down 43.3 rebounds per game, 13th in the nation, according to HerHoopStats. SMU particularly excels on the offensive boards, gathering 16.2 per game, 10th-highest in Division I.

Moreover, the Mustangs hold opponents to just a 60.3% defensive rebound rate, 19th in the country. Syracuse is in the bottom 45 nationally in defensive rebound rate, so SMU could frequently extend possessions against the Orange.

SMU’s individual rebounding numbers don’t jump off the page, with Jessica Peterson leading the team with 12.5 per game and the next most, Embry, notching 6.9. However, 11 players average at least one board per game, leading to SMU’s rebounding dominance.

Player to Watch: Nya Robertson, guard, No. 3

The Fort Worth, Texas, native played her first two seasons of collegiate basketball at George Washington. In her freshman season, she averaged 14.4 points and earned Atlantic 10 Sixth Woman of the Year and A-10 All-Rookie Team honors. The 5-foot-7 guard upped her productivity to 16.2 points last season, the fourth-most in the conference, and was named to the All-Conference Third Team.

Robertson has started strong for the Mustangs. She leads the team in points at 20.3 per game, which ranks 20th nationally. The junior’s usage has been off the charts. Robertson has shot the most field goals of any D-I player with 285 attempts and unleashed the fifth-most 3s nationally at 120, per HerHoop Stats.

Published on January 8, 2025 at 4:38 pm

Contact Nicholas: njalumka@syr.edu | @nalumkal