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In its final home game of the season, No. 9 Syracuse (5-3, 1-2 Atlantic Coast) hosts No. 5 North Carolina (8-2, 1-2) on Saturday to begin a stretch of three straight games against top-five opponents. The Tar Heels come to the Carrier Dome with the top scoring offense in the nation. SU’s defense, though up-and-down through its first seven games, looked strong against unranked Albany on Thursday.

Here’s what our beat writers think will happen on Saturday:

Roshan Fernandez (5-3)
Down-to-the-wire
North Carolina 15, Syracuse 13

The Tar Heels have the best scoring offense in the country but a mediocre defense (No. 37). The Orange have the No. 9 scoring offense in the country and the No. 44 scoring defense. Both hover near the top-10 in shot percentage, too.

Perhaps most importantly, though, both are struggling at the faceoff X after early-season dominance. The Tar Heels have lost the faceoff battle in three of their last four games, and they’re coming off a two-game losing streak. The Orange showed improvement against Albany, but whether that was a one-time event or a sign of what’s to come is yet to be seen.

This game is going to come down to the wire, and it’ll be won at the faceoff X — where both teams need to gain as many possessions as possible for their high-powered offenses. UNC has scored as many as 27 goals in a single game this season, and Syracuse’s defense has been inconsistent throughout the year. Ultimately, I think the Tar Heels’ offense will prove overwhelming for SU’s defense. The Tar Heels lost three straight games in 2019 — the second of which came against Syracuse — but they’ll prevent another three-game losing streak on Saturday in the Carrier Dome.

Allie Kaylor (5-3)
Tarred and feathered
North Carolina 17, Syracuse 14

Death, taxes, Syracuse losing to ranked opponents. The Orange are 5-3, and four of those wins came against unranked teams, with the fifth being somewhat of a fluke against then-No. 2 Virginia. That Virginia win was the second game of the season, and the Orange haven’t looked that good since. North Carolina, on the other hand, started the season 8-0. It’s lost two games since — against Duke in overtime and in a two-goal loss to Virginia last week.

North Carolina averages 17.4 goals per game, the highest mark in Division I, while Syracuse allows 12.1 per game, which is in the bottom half of teams in the country. Syracuse scores less, and North Carolina allows fewer. The Tar Heels aren’t ranked No. 1 anymore like they were a few weeks ago, but they’re still on a level Syracuse won’t be able to reach.

Arabdho Majumder (5-3)
Loading the catapult
North Carolina 13, Syracuse 14

Someone’s got to believe in this Syracuse team and some fun, right? The Orange have struggled against ranked teams this year and were exposed at home against Notre Dame a few weeks ago. But that was a wake-up call for SU, which played a rejuvenated defense against Albany. That’ll need to continue against UNC, which features a Tewaaraton-favorite in Chris Gray. While it’s not feasible to think that Mitch Wykoff will have a lot of success in shutting down Gray given Wykoff’s track record against top ACC opponents this year, it is feasible to believe that the Orange will overcome that. Syracuse nearly got past a six-point outing from Michael Sowers at Duke.

For SU, this is the part of the schedule it needs to perform in. And with Duke and UNC both slipping and trending downward as the season progresses, it’s a chance for the Orange to catapult themselves back into a top-five conversation and reassert why they were one of the favorites to win it all coming into the year. It starts with a win at home against a top team in what could be the final home contest for many Syracuse players.

Published on April 14, 2021 at 11:41 pm