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Syracuse’s opportunity for a Quadrant 1 victory was lost when its road game at Louisville was canceled Wednesday. The Orange’s next game is an opportunity for a Quadrant 2 home win against Notre Dame to boost Syracuse’s resume in the final four conference regular season games before the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament. 

Here’s what to know about Notre Dame (9-10, 6-7 Atlantic Coast) before the Fighting Irish visit Syracuse (12-6, 6-5) on Saturday afternoon at 2 p.m.:

All-time series

Syracuse leads 30-22

Last time they played

Syracuse and Notre Dame split their two season meetings in 2019-20, with the Orange winning the second in South Bend, Indiana on Jan. 22. Syracuse started the game poorly, tailing by double digits in the first half before rallying to lead by eight with 10 minutes to play. Notre Dame fought its way back into the game, but SU survived for an 84-82 road win.

Elijah Hughes tallied 26 points in the win while Joe Girard III had 15 points, nine rebounds and four assists.

KenPom odds 

Syracuse has a 58% chance to beat the Irish at home, with a projected score of  77-74, per KenPom.

The Notre Dame report

Based on 3-point field-goal shooting percentage, Notre Dame is the second-best 3-point offense the Orange have faced all season. Only Virginia, who made 14-of-31 against SU on Jan. 25, is a better shooting team on the schedule. ND shoots 38.1% from beyond the arc, 27th-best in the nation.

The Irish are 26th-best from the free-throw line, rank top-15 lowest in offensive turnover rate and have won six of eight in the ACC since they started 0-5 in conference play.

While ND is great on offense, the Irish’s defense and rebounding are subpar. ND has the least-efficient defense in the conference, ranking 141st, 13 spots behind Boston College, per KenPom. They’re in the bottom 10 in the country at forcing opponents into turnovers and don’t guard the 3 well. 

Notre Dame has three players — Nate Laszewski, Trey Wertz and Dane Goodwin — shooting above 39% from beyond the arc. Laszewski is one of the most-efficient shooters in the nation and ranks seventh-best from beyond the arc at 51.6%. 

ND ranks pretty low in percentage of minutes from the bench, so neither team is likely to be looking to their depth to decide this game.

How Syracuse beats Notre Dame

Even though ND plays at a slower pace than an average NCAA or ACC team, the Orange’s offensive interior strength and the Irish’s 3-point shooting ability against the zone will make the matchup a higher-scoring game. Syracuse has to chase the Irish shooters off the 3-point line and prevent second-chance opportunities. 

Quincy Guerrier has mismatch advantages against the undersized Irish on the interior, and he will need to take advantage of those matchups if Syracuse wants to pick up a Quadrant 2 home win on Saturday. 

Because the Irish don’t have much depth, getting them into foul trouble is another way for the Orange to exploit this matchup. Notre Dame doesn’t have a high foul rate, but it also only has a seven-man rotation of regular players.

Player to watch: Prentiss Hubb, guard, No. 3

Syracuse saw both sides of Prentiss Hubb in its two meetings with the Irish last season. In the first game, Hubb made 6-of-12 from 3, dished out nine assists and tallied 22 points in the Irish’s upset win in the Carrier Dome. When the rematch occurred, SU turned over Hubb four times and held him to eight points on 3-of-10 total shooting. 

Hubb has the highest-usage rate on Notre Dame, and the second highest assist rate in the conference. The Orange have been playing their guards further down in the zone and closer to the foul line to stop the high-post entries and assist Marek Dolezaj in the middle. But Hubb can just shoot over the zone as a point guard, which Syracuse will need to adjust to. 

Stat to know: 17.5

The Irish foul at the lowest rate in the nation, and that’s reflected in this stat — percentage of free throws allowed per field goal allowed. Notre Dame’s defense may be the least efficient in the ACC, but the Irish foul at a lower rate than any other team in the nation. No defense allows a lower rate of free throws per field goal attempt. Head coach Jim Boeheim has stressed that the Orange need to be more aggressive in getting to the foul line, but the Irish will be a tough matchup for Syracuse to get free points. Despite Notre Dame’s high rank last season, SU attempted 30 total free throws in two games against ND last season.

Published on February 17, 2021 at 11:39 pm

Contact Anthony: amdabbun@syr.edu | @AnthonyDabbundo