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Saturday’s win against No. 16 Virginia Tech was Syracuse’s biggest win of the 2020-21 season, and Monday night’s road game at No. 8 Virginia is a chance for back-to-back signature victories for the Orange’s NCAA Tournament resume.

Virginia (10-2, 6-0 Atlantic Coast) sits atop the conference standings and SU head coach Jim Boeheim called it the league’s best team in Saturday’s postgame press conference. Syracuse (9-4, 3-3) split the two meetings with the defending national champions last season and will look to win two straight games against the Cavaliers on Monday night in Charlottesville, Virginia.

Here’s what to know about Virginia before the Orange and Cavaliers tip-off on Monday night: 

All-time series

Virginia leads 8-5

Last time they played 

Syracuse traveled to Charlottesville in January 2020 for the second of two meetings with the Cavaliers. The Orange lost the first meeting 48-34 in their season-opener, but they got revenge on the defending national champions with an overtime win, 63-55. Joe Girard III led the Orange with 19 points and three assists. Marek Dolezaj had one of his best all-around games of his career for SU, despite scoring seven points. The then-junior forward added 12 rebounds, six assists, two blocks and two steals and helped the Orange avoid a 1-4 start in conference play. 

It was the Orange’s first win against Virginia in five meetings.

KenPom odds 

KenPom gives Virginia a 72% chance to beat the Orange at home, with a projected score of 68-61. 

The Virginia report

After a down year in 2019-20 following its national championship, Virginia is back in the national title and ACC championship mix again in 2020-21. The Cavaliers rank ninth nationally in KenPom efficiency, boast the league’s best record at 6-0 and rank No. 13 in the AP Top 25. The Cavaliers offense is centered around two players — point guard Kihei Clark and forward Jay Huff. Clark started in the national championship run as a freshman and has improved his offensive game in the years since. Always solid defensively, Clark is making 55.6% of his 2-point attempts and is top 10 in the conference in assist rate despite standing at 5-foot-9. 

Because of Virginia’s extremely slow tempo and offensive pace, Huff doesn’t put up the counting stats to put him in national player of the year categories, but he’s one of the most efficient players in the country. Huff is 22nd nationally in offensive efficiency, making 71% of his 2-pointers and 44% of his 3s. He’s one of the nation’s best shot blockers and defensive rebounders on the inside, but can also stretch the SU zone from beyond the arc. 

As a whole, the Cavaliers have the nation’s seventh-best effective field goal percentage and fourth-lowest turnover rate. Their defense is not as good this season as years past, but they don’t get beat in transition and defend the 3 better than most teams. 

How Syracuse beats Virginia 

Syracuse has survived multiple games this year despite subpar shooting games from beyond the arc, but it is hard to see the Orange winning this game without making more 3s than they have been lately. SU has to win the 3-point battle with the Cavaliers on Monday if it wants to pull off the marquee road win. When the Orange beat Virginia last year, they did so because of efficient 3-point shooting. In both of Virginia’s losses this year, No. 1 Gonzaga and San Francisco overcame the back-line defense by shooting over it. If Syracuse has the same success and can shoot around 40% from 3, the Orange will be in the game late. 

Player to watch: Trey Murphy, Guard, No. 25

Murphy transferred from Rice to Virginia following the 2020 season and has made an immediate impact in the starting rotation for Tony Bennett. The Cavaliers forward has the seventh highest offensive rating in the NCAA per KenPom and has made 50.9% of his 3-point attempts. His effective field goal percentage is 70.1%, which is the 10th best in the nation. Syracuse forwards — specifically Quincy Guerrier and Alan Griffin — will need to know where Murphy is at all times to prevent him from heating up from 3. Murphy and Huff could take turns playing out of the high post and looking to dish out for 3s. Given their jump shooting prowess, it will be a tough challenge for the recently improved Syracuse defense.

Stat to know: 59.7

While Syracuse’s tempo is faster this year than in recent years, the same is not true for Bennett and the Cavaliers. Virginia averages 59.7 possessions per game which is 357th in the NCAA. No team in NCAA Division I basketball plays slower than UVA, and this is true for the third consecutive season. They force opponents to burn the shot clock down and are patient offensively to not shoot early in the shot clock often, as their possessions usually average 19.9 seconds on offense. 

Published on January 24, 2021 at 5:27 pm

Contact Anthony: amdabbun@syr.edu | @AnthonyDabbundo